Do the math: Nobody can calculate who will make NASCAR playoffs

Don Coble

DAYTONA BEACH – The math is simple: 15 of 16 spots in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs have gone to race winners. With one race remaining in the regular season – Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at the Daytona International Speedway – that means 17 drivers will vie for the final spot at one of the most unpredictable races of the season.

Although they haven’t won this year, Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick locked in a spot on points during last Sunday’s road-course race at Watkins Glen International. The other 12 have been in Victory Lane.

“We’re in a great spot with the best yet to come,” Keselowski said.

Three drivers are eligible to clinch with points, while 14 others must win to get in.

Sit back and buckle up. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Remember 2020 when Chase Elliott sent the sport into a tizzy by winning the championship? Now he must steer clear of the typical Daytona mayhem and do what he’s never done at the 2.5-mile tri-oval – win.

Elliott didn’t help himself by missing six races with a broken leg sustained while snowboarding, another race after being suspended for intentionally turning Denny Hamlin head-first into the outside wall at the Charlotte Motor Speedway or running out of gas at Watkins Glen – a track where he’s won twice.

“To show up there and be in a must-win situation is like going to Vegas and having to hit the nearest slot machine for the jackpot,” Elliott said. “That’s just silly.”

Other top-tier drivers who need a 200-mph haymaker include Alex Bowman, Austin Cindric, Aric Almirola and Austin Dillion.

Winning at Daytona is difficult enough. Just ask Rusty Wallace, Martin Truex Jr., Ricky Rudd, Terry Labonte, Kyle Busch and Mark Martin. And Chase Elliott. None of those drivers have a Cup Series win at Daytona. That group combined to win 255 Cup races and six championships.

What makes Daytona such a wildcard is restricted engines. To keep cars from getting airborne and possibly into the grandstands, NASCAR mandates using a tapered spacer to restrict airflow into the engine. But since cars don’t have the power to create separation, traffic jams often are 10 deep and two wide. With cars racing nose-to-tail, the most innocent of taps can turn a straightaway into a multi-million-dollar junkyard.

The likelihood of a crash – there were five pileups last year involving 29 different cars, including six that crashed twice – has led to some improbable winners. Greg Sacks, Derrike Cope, Michael McDowell. John Andretti, Trevor Bayne, David Ragan and Justin Haley have Cup victories at Daytona, and that group combined to win 11 Cup starts and no championships.

Teams will approach Daytona with different strategies, and each requires more luck than a perfect plan to make it to the finish line. The saying, “To finish first, first you have to finish,” has never been so fitting.

Bubba Wallace is in the best position to advance to the postseason. If he doesn’t wreck, he will move on if there aren’t any new winners.

“You just have to go out and run your own race,” Wallace said. “You have to go with a positive mindset and believe.”

A.J. Allmendinger is a driver who seems to excel on superspeedways and road courses. He’s out of road course chances during the regular season. His last-ditch hope will be on Saturday.

“We want to get in the playoffs,” he said. “We’ll lay it all on the line [Sunday]. But it’s just about building momentum and trying to get better.”

The race is scheduled for a 7 p.m. green flag start. What transpires after that will be both nerve-racking and unexpected.