Trying to reason with hurricane season: Don’t be fooled by Idalia

CLAY COUNTY – I overheard a group of guys laughing about how county and weather officials once again warned of possible destruction projected to come with Hurricane Idalia last week, only to realize the storm was barely a whimper.

In Clay County.

Most of the storm tracks had the storm making landfall north of Tampa before cutting a path across Northeast Florida and exiting into the Atlantic Ocean just north of Jacksonville. That put our county in the storm’s crosshairs. At one time, Camp Blanding was under a hurricane watch alert.

Less than 12 hours before it hit shore, Idalia jogged north and west and struck Keaton Beach, 75 miles southwest of Tallahassee.

No matter how many experts you put on a project, one thing never changes Mother Nature’s in charge and answers to nobody.

That brings us back to the people who said Idalia was proof again that news companies, weather services and government officials only want to illicit fear with its residents. It makes them look like they’re earning their money.

But here’s the deal. Idalia did happen. It was a major hurricane. It teetered between Category 4 and 3 when it pounded the Big Bend coastline. Tell those folks everyone was looking for significant television ratings.

It’s impossible to know exactly where a storm will travel. We have incomplete data from previous storms, water temperatures, storm speeds, conditions that influence the direction, and our best guesses.

Clay County stood ready to face Idalia’s wrath. But it turned and went another way. Others weren’t as lucky. Our good fortune means others were unfortunate. Instead of lamenting being over-prepared and swept by zealous expectations, we should focus more on those who still don’t have power or a roof over their heads.

A year ago, we got fooled here by Hurricane Ian. Early in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Hurricane Center projected Ian to hit Southwest Florida. As the storm approached the state, the model changed to the Tampa Bay area and Tallahassee.

The first forecast was correct, but it was too late for some to find higher ground. At the last minute – even with a storm that was moving at 10 mph – Ian made a hard right-hand turn and tore through Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel Island. Many Southwest Florida residents were caught off guard, which led to 144 deaths.

Again, we were spared. Some ignored the warnings here; others belittled forecasters when it passed 150 miles south of the projected path.

Just because we were warned to be prepared and it didn’t materialize doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. Hurricane Ian did happen – just not to us.

Early in the storm’s development, the National Hurricane Center said Ian had a “low chance” of development. A day later, the organization reversed course.

How the models differed from leading agencies made Ian and Idalia so challenging to predict. A wider cone was drafted by incorporating the leading models. They were throwing their best predictions against the wall, hoping something would stick.

Hurricanes don’t follow the script because the atmosphere is constantly changing. That’s why the NHC always warned people not to focus on the exact area of impact, especially from a long-term forecast.

The cone also projects the likely path of the storm’s eye, but hurricane-force winds could extend as many as 50 miles from the center. Tropical-force winds are often felt more than 150 miles in every direction from the eye.

As they continue to clean up Idalia’s damaging path through the Florida Gulf Coast, Georgia and South Carolina, forecasters have their eyes on two other potentially dangerous systems. One is projected to be a tropical depression or storm – or perhaps a hurricane – by the time you read this.

If our Office of Emergency Management suggests we stock up on water and take all the necessary precautions for a potentially bad storm, I will listen. I’d rather be prepared for a storm that misses me than unprepared for a storm that punches me in the mouth.