FLEMING ISLAND - The football season has ended for most of Clay County with just three teams remaining alive; Fleming Island (District title), Middleburg (third playoff berth in three years) and Oakleaf (first playoff under Coach Chris Foy) as those three will now wait a week to take on whomever the algorithms of the FHSAA determines to be their next opponent.
Many a coach beyond even Clay County has described the FHSAA playoff points system as physics disguised as biochemical engineering whenever asked about their take on the playoffs upcoming.
Let's see, Ridgeview, Clay, Orange Park, and Keystone Heights finish up 2024 with some, probably, disappointing results although the Raiders had a lot of injuries, Keystone Heights lost a probable all-state center and had a tragedy interrupt their season and Ridgeview had a first-year coach trying to reverse a trend of one win seasons in one fell swoop. Clay had kind of a weird finish with the normally precise execution known to Blue Devil football fans maybe a little slighted, but you have to love guys like Landon Martin, Lavaris, and Javaris Roberts; Aaron Stacy and Omas Goosby who all put 300 percent effort when they were on the field. If anything, Blue Devil fans still had sporadic moments of grind and attack that made watching the boys play on the field still exciting.
For Ridgeview, the next six months will define coach Merlin Smith's efforts to engineer the field passion that football requires. The one win for Ridgeview was about as exciting a game as a first-year coach could ask for and a good reel of film to play a lot over the summer.
Now to the remaining three, Oakleaf has the jets to put up some points obviously with games of 57, 56, and 44 points with matchups against top-tier opponents. Coach Foy has masterfully coerced the love of the game and of teammates into an explosive pot of energy that can strike at any time.
With a probable rematch with Mandarin in the Region 1-6A playoffs more than likely and a probable home game with that, Foy's wizardry will be tasked to get the boys to forget the first game, execute, and try to also forget that Mandarin is a multiple Final Four, state runnerup machine with that inexplicable big game experience.
With Oakleaf shredding Tocoi Creek 56-7 on Friday; Carlos Witherup a couple 50 yarder touchdown passes, a 100-yard interception pick-six from Rodney Townsend, and Michael Connor flying twice for 50-yarders would make one think that the 18-7 to Mandarin was a blip on the screen. Not for Mandarin coach Toby Bullock. He figured it out once and can figure it out twice. Foy needs to be either a gunslinger or a Transformer that nothing moves against. Pick one; bludgeon the Mandarin offense led by a freshman QB with as many interceptions as touchdowns or outscore them by 60. St. Augustine chose to outscore Mandarin in their 38-26 match last week with 14 points right off the bus and another 14 points out of the lockers in the third period. With the Oakleaf firepower, seven points is not going to cut it a second time.
That "inexplicable big game experience" is something that the guy at the other end of the county, Fleming Island coach Derek Chipoletti, has in buckets of and has a couple of guys around him that have the same bucket of experience. Wingman Chris Otero is a state champion track guy and even stepped in to win the Clay game amidst the "preseason disruptions. Former Seminole High track state powerhouse (Four state titles) coach Emory Blake, father to NFL-er Jeff Blake is also on the sidelines offering his championship pedigree to the Chipoletti lineup.
That's a lot of street cred for a team that has been a bundle of talent with a start that was in a bit of disarray by non-football circumstances and now is running on eight cylinders into the playoffs.
Fleming Island thought they were going to Tallahassee Lincoln to play another playoff-heavy program (also a rugged 29.3 strength of schedule rating) with the Trojans and Golden Eagles tying up numerous times in the past decade. Lincoln moved to fifth-ranked in Class 5A in the Nov. 3 rankings to put Niceville at eight, Mosley at nine, Ponte Vedra at 10, and Fleming Island at 13 with Beachside at 14, Mainland at 15, and Middleburg at 33.
With Fleming Island rocking Fort White on Friday, there is chatter of movement in the lineup and a possible rematch with Ponte Vedra (a 31-29 Fleming Island win on a last-second field goal by Parker Sirdevan).

So, I'm doing this Sunday, November 3 at about 9 p.m. FHSAA should update their rankings by Tuesday, Nov. 5. The below rankings show just how close the playoffs have become.
MaxPreps Computer Rankings:

These rankings are composed through our complex, unbiased computer algorithm focused on the strength of the schedule and the data entered into MaxPreps.
Other factors considered in the Computer Rankings include:
*Results from any given game
*Playoff wins/losses
*Opponents' strength of schedule
These rankings can be filtered by state all the way down to your local league.

Football Rankings (from FHSAA football manual)
4.7.4.1 FHSAA MaxPreps Ranking – Qualifying Criteria
(a) In order to be considered as a “Playoff” qualifier, a school must play a minimum of eight regular-season games. (An
an exception may be made by the Executive Director of FHSAA for schools that do not play a full schedule of games.)
(b) Results of all regular season games played and finished will count towards a team’s FHSAA MaxPreps Ranking.
(c) Only regular season games of out-of-state teams will be used to calculate the FHSAA MaxPreps Ranking.

MaxPreps rankings Florida All Classes
as of November 3

Class 5A, Region 1
Team, record, last game, Strength of Schedule
19. Lincoln 8-2, beat Rickards 48-9, 29.3
32. Niceville, 9-1, beat Navarre 35-7, 23.4
45. Mosley, 9-1, lost FSU 30-27, 16.2
48. Ponte Vedra, 8-2, beat Creekside 35-30, 27.3
68. Fleming Island, 7-3, beat Ft. White 49-0, 21.9
71. Beachside, 7-3, lost to Nease 42-20, 21.0
80. Mainland, 5-5, beat Seabreeze 53-0, 27.2
191. Chiles, 3-7, lost to Suwannee 25-24, 17.6
207. Middleburg, 7-3, beat N Marion 26-21, 1.2

FHSAA rankings Florida All Classes from region 1-5A
as of October 29 (should update Nov. 4)

18. Mosley
20. Niceville
22. Lincoln
45. Ponte Vedra
71. Beachside
93. Fleming Island
155. Mainland
225. Middleburg
282. Chiles

Maxpreps rankings Florida All Classes
as of November 3

Class 6A Region 1
Team, record, last game, Strength of Schedule
1. Nease, 8-0, beat Beachside 42-20, 31.7 (Play Bartram Trail Nov. 7)
4. Buchholz, 6-3, beat Cardinal Newman 14-7, 39.8
5. Pace, 9-1, beat Milton 48-7, 20.4
7. Mandarin, 7-3, lost to St. Augustine 38-26, 28.6
9. Oakleaf, 7-3, beat Tocoi Creek 56-7, 26.2
17. Oviedo 8-2, beat Eustis 52-0, 10.4
18. Bartram Trail, 4-5, play Nease Nov. 7, 28.8
22. Evans, 6-4, beat Oak Ridge 69-0, 17.3
24. Fletcher, 5-5, lost 35-21 to TCA, 22.1
25. Tate, 7-3, lost Escambia 34-14, 11.7

FHSAA rankings Florida All Classes from region 1-6A
as of October 29 (should update Nov. 4)

1. Nease
15. Pace
30. Buchholz
42. Mandarin
69. Oakleaf
78. Oviedo
120. Tate
135. Evans
167. Fletcher
177. Bartram Trail