DAYTONA BEACH – Now it gets real.

A NASCAR regular season that started on Valentine’s Day, carved a twisting tale around the country and wrapped up with 28 cars crashing in the final 19 laps of Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at the Daytona International Speedway, now heads into its 10-race stretch drive that will determine its next champion.

The Playoffs field of 16 drivers was set by the results of the first 26 races. Winners, including Daytona winner Ryan Blaney, got an automatic pass to the postseason, while Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Tyler Reddick all were winless – but efficient at stockpiling enough points to make the cut.

Blaney survived an eight-car crash with 14 laps remaining, an 11-car pileup with three laps left in regulation and a nine-car melee coming to the checkered flag on the third lap of overtime.

The first round of the playoffs starts with Sunday’s Southern 500 at the Darlington Raceway and includes races at Richmond, Virginia and Bristol, Tennessee. The top 12 then advance to the second round and the championship field then will be reduced to eight after six races and four after nine races. The last four will compete for the title at the Phoenix International Raceway in a winner-take-all format.

So, who will be among the first four to be eliminated? Who will be in the Final Four? Here’s a projection:

The upper crust: Kyle Larson, Blaney, Kyle Busch and Chase Elliott.

Larson clearly is the favorite after winning a series-best five wins, including three on intermediate tracks and a pair of road courses. He also has four second-place finishes on intermediate tracks between one and two miles and a runner-up on a road course. Since there are four intermediates and a road course in the Playoffs, Larson should be on the fast track to Phoenix. And as the regular-season champion, Larson will start the Playoffs with a 28-point lead against Blaney and Ryan Truex Jr.

“I think there’s a lot of good tracks for us. I feel like we have a shot to win anywhere right now. That’s encouraging,” Larson said.

Blaney comes into the playoffs on a two-race winning streak. He also has five top-five finishes in his last six races.

“Momentum is what everything is all about,” Blaney said. “Confidence is key and we came into this weekend very confident after last week with our heads held high. They’ll be a little bit higher this week, so I look forward to getting to Darlington. We’ve got 10 weeks of work to do and I’ll look forward to them.”

With three finishes of 20th or worse in the last five races, Kyle Busch needs the postseason to get things turned around – but nobody is better at flipping the switch. While his numbers aren’t overwhelming, you can’t ever count him out.

“Hopefully we can get a couple wins in the first round, Kyle Busch said. “We’ve got Darlington and we ran third there in the spring. It would be nice to get a win or two in the first round. That would be great.”

No list would be complete without Chase Elliott at the top. The defending NASCAR Cup Series Champion is considered a road-course ringer, but he’s been one of the most consistent drivers in the past two months with six top-eight finishes in his last seven races.

“I feel like the same thing that it was last year,” Elliott said. “Just execute a really solid 10 weeks and try to be at our very best during the most important part of the year.”

On the cusp: Martin Truex Jr., Hamlin, William Byron and Alex Bowman

Truex won the 2017 championship and finished second in 2018, 2019 and 2021. He has three wins this year, and all three came earlier in the season at tracks that are part of the Playoffs. The last victory, however, came on May 9 – a dry spell of nearly four months.

“We just need to get away from all of this bad luck we’ve been having,” he said. “Feeling good about the Playoffs. Darlington was an awesome race for us this year so I look forward to kicking it off there and see what we can do.”

Hamlin comes into the Playoffs without a victory – so far – this year. And yet, he’s ranked sixth because he’s put together 13 top-five races.

“Every week we give ourselves a chance so I’m excited for the Playoffs to start especially these first rounds of tracks,” Hamlin said.

Byron and Bowman had the difficult tasks of replacing two legendary drivers at Hendrick Motorsports – Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Byron won at Homestead in February, while Bowman had a breakthrough season with three wins. But can they avoid customary pitfalls that come with three rounds of eliminations?

“I feel like we were really successful last year in the Playoffs and we have the ability to repeat that and go further,” Bowman said.

Best of the rest: Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Kurt Busch and Christopher Bell

Keselowski and Logano have several things in common. They both drive for car owner Roger Penske, and both have shown bursts of speed. At the same time, they’ve both lacked the kind of consistency to make it through three rounds of eliminations. And for Keselowski, the end of the Playoffs will mark the end of his tenure with Penske as he moves to a driver/owner role at Roush Fenway Racing.

Kurt Busch announced he will be moving to a second car being fielded by Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin next year. At the same time, his current team, Chip Ganassi Racing, is shutting down after Phoenix, which could affect everyone’s commitment.

“We will see where things shake out,” Kurt Busch said. “It’s what it is and now we are in Playoff mode. I can feel it and we have a good 10 weeks ahead of us.”

Bell, the often-forgotten fourth member of Joe Gibbs Racing that includes Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Truex, got into the Playoffs by winning the second race of the season. Since then, he’s only had three other top-fives. But as long as he’s in JGR equipment, anything is possible.

Thanks for playing: Kevin Harvick, Tyler Reddick, Aric Almirola and Michael McDowell

Harvick won nine races in 2020. He has none this year. His car has lacked speed and consistency, and there have been too many unforced errors by his Stewart-Haas Racing team.

The same can be said about Almirola, his SHR teammate. For either to advance, it would involve a dramatic turnaround for the team.

“I’m just really happy to be going to the playoffs,” Almirola said. “We’ll go these next 10 weeks and maximize our days and execute with perfection and just do everything we can to score all the points we can and try and win a race here or there.”

Reddick was involved in one of the late-race crashes at Daytona, but so was the only other driver who could catch him in points – Austin Dillion, his Richard Childress Racing teammate. His time in the limelight probably won’t last long.

And that leaves Daytona 500 winner McDowell. After that stunning win, McDowell has only finished in the top five once. The Daytona 500 victory will ease the disappointment of a quick exit from the Playoffs.