DAYTONA BEACH – The playoff scenario has never been clearer this year heading into Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at the Daytona International Speedway. And yet, the battle for the 16th and final spot in the Cup Series Playoffs has created an enormous sense of uncertainty.

Fifteen spots are locked in. Tyler Reddick has a comfortable lead in the point standings for the final cutoff position. But there’s nothing comfortable about racing on Daytona’s high banks – especially in the summer.

If Reddick survives the 160-lap race under the lights, he has a great chance to advance to the first round of the Playoffs. But that’s a big if.

No less than 14 other drivers can make the cut by winning the race. As Greg Sack reminded us in 1985, then David Ragan in 2011, Erik Jones in 2018 and Justin Haley in 2019, longshot winners can be a good bet. Moreover, the chances of finishing on a wrecker’s hook are as likely as driving to the checkered flag. A year ago, 23 of 40 cars were involved in crashes. In 2019, 28 of 40 wrecked, including 18 on the final lap of a rain-shortened finish.

All drivers agree on one thing ahead of Saturday’s 7 p.m.: hold on, it’s going to be a wild ride. “I think you’ll expect to see drivers that were as desperate as I was in that race to try and get up front and get control of the race and win for their team and all their partners,” Reddick said. “It’s just going to be a matter of trying to have an understanding in the back of your head or have a point that you kind of have within yourself. Like OK, this is my fun meter. If we can stay within, we’re good. If we go over here, etc.

“We’re trying to make the Playoffs, right? But we’re also trying to get 10th and get that extra [bonus] point if we can, too. So, there are a lot of things around. We’re going to try and control what we can. Someone going in and winning that race in Daytona is something that we can’t really control unless we win that race. But it’s a tough spot to be in.”

The 14 other drivers, including Reddick’s Richard Childress Racing teammate Austin Dillon, know they need a victory to move up the list, including Florida watermelon farmer-turned-racer Ross Chastain.

“I don’t want to cause a big wreck. I’ve done that. I’m trying to learn from it,” Chastain said. “I used to get really freaked out and worried and stressed about superspeedway races, but I’ve just realized over my 10 years in the sport, and really – I learned it from [truck racer] Johnny Sauter – he said one day something that resonated with me like we’re all going to crash. We’re all going to get backward in the grass at 200 mph at some point. You make it. Go home. So, yeah. No desperation. I just want to win and compete in this series. So, whatever happens there, happens.”

That’s what concerns playoff drivers who are focusing on not crashing and gaining momentum for the Playoffs.

“No, it’s going to be balls to the wall for anybody that’s top-30 in points,” Kyle Busch said. “Anybody that’s top-30 in points that can win that race, we’ve seen Front Row Motorsports win. We’ve seen Spire win. We’ve seen teams that don’t normally win races be able to score victories in the restrictor-plate races so that just leads to the anxiety level of everybody.”

Busch is safely in the Playoffs. But like others, he’s wary of the circling storm from others who are desperate to win at all costs.

After racing at the Richmond International Raceway in the past, NASCAR moved the regular-season finale to Daytona this year. It was done to create a greater level of excitement – and angst.

“There are a lot of people who are really worried. You always have bubble drivers,” Denny Hamlin said. “You used to go into Richmond and you were kind of afraid of a different winner there, but you usually had the same cast of characters who ran upfront. But at Daytona, you just never know. That race, in particular, always gets a lot more wild. It’s very unpredictable. There’s a lot of nervous guys out there.

“Ultimately [it’s] a great opportunity for someone to sneak into the playoffs who’s had a rough year behind them. You just never know. It’s good for our schedule to have it where it’s at [as the regular-season finale]. It’s a good place.”

Hamlin is trying to clinch the regular-season championship – and the extra bonus points that come with it. Oddly enough, he’s also trying to his first race in 2021. With a spot already assured in the playoffs, Hamlin said he’s likely to be more aggressive and take more risks to catch Kyle Larson for the top-seed. “The way I see it, we don’t have anything to lose,” Hamlin said. “Now we need to go back on offense on the regular-season championship. From my standpoint, I will be going as aggressively as I can to try and get a win there. It depends where our points position is and if we can gain anything on the 5 [Larson]. That will distinguish how I’m going to strategize, how I’m going to run. I just think it’s fluid. It’s a moving target to see how I’m going to approach that race.”

Which certainly adds a level of uncertainty to the race.