LAKE ASBURY – With multiple construction developments seeking to move forward with blueprint plans, what used to be a quiet area could soon become a primary example of what overdevelopment looks like in the county.

U.S. Census data indicates a 21.2% rise in the community’s population from 2010 to 2020, a figure that rose from 8,700 to 11,036 residents, which could become even larger soon.

County Commission Chairwoman Besty Condon said during the State of the County luncheon last month that more than 10,000 home permits were already planned for the area.

That same rural sentiment still has some familiarity in the Lake Asbury community, but that’s something that could possibly fade away with time.

Priscilla Welch, who has been a resident of Lake Asbury for 28 years, said she used to be able to ride her horse on the street. Welch, a server at Dalton’s Sports Grill on Henley Road, has owned two acres in Lake Asbury since 1995.

Her trails are now filled with heavy traffic and heavy construction equipment.

Another resident of 40 years isn’t happy with the rapid growth.

“It sounded like shooting over there on Sunday. I don’t want to talk about it. Don’t get me started,” an anonymous local grumbled.

A number like 11,000 residents may not seem like too many. Still, even a population that grows by a little bit could create additional stress in a community that possesses infrastructure that has its limits.

Asbury Lake is defined by two-lane roads, with County Road 220 running northeast to northwest, County Road 218 stretching south, and Russell Road and Sandridge Road. Henley Road interconnects the area.

“The concern of everyone here is the infrastructure. The Board of County Commissioners approved so much development to occur,” said Kay Manly, a Lake Asbury resident who’s opposed to overdevelopment in the community.

But that’s not all.

The second phase of construction for the 46-mile First Coast Expressway running through Clay, Duval and St John’s counties has been ongoing since March 2019.

The expressway is planned to pass through State Road 16 to Blanding Boulevard – a 10.5-mile stretch that will carve through the middle of the Lake Asbury area.

The potential effects are unknown, but placing a large highway in the middle of Lake Asbury could spell trouble for an area already seeing some struggles due to infrastructure.

With only so many schools, police stations, and fire stations in Lake Asbury to go around, Manly is concerned that these services, which serve as the lifeblood of any community, might not be able to keep pace with the growth that is taking place.

“Without the appropriate fees, we don’t have the roads, schools, and fire and police stations to keep up with all of this new growth,” Manly said.

The county commission voted to impose $121 million in impact fees to be collected during the next 22 years to help pay for the growth. That equates to as much as $7,034 for each new home, but the county won’t start collecting those fees until June.

The two closest high schools to Lake Asbury are Middleburg High (7.7 miles away) and Clay High (12.5 miles).

Doctors Inlet, RideOut, Coppergate, Lake Asbury and Shadowlawn are within a seven-mile circle for elementary school parents. Still, with only one junior school – Lake Asbury – and no high schools in the immediate area, options for some students could be limited until a new high school is built.

One new development is Hyland Trail on Henley Road. The property will soon become a master-planned community that will offer approximately 1,500 residential homesites, according to the website of the developer, Green Pointe Holdings.

Plans for the Community Development District call for amenities like multi-purpose trails connecting neighborhood pocket parks, a resort-style pool and a dog park.

For now, Hyland Trail resembles a baron pit of sand and mud. A stormwater retention pond sits at the front of the unfinished development with runoff and tire tracks making their mark on an area with plenty of unfinished construction still left to be completed.

Behind the pond, many large pipes and construction materials for soon-to-be underground infrastructure for sewage and drainage lay down, ready to be placed into action.

A sign at the front of the property reads: “Coming Soon: New Homes From the $300s ($300,000s).”

Another potential issue that Manly is also worried about is another phenomenon caused by the growth is less affordable housing available to the public.

“School teachers and firefighters can’t afford a $300,000-plus home. Affordable housing is going away out here,” she said.

However, not all are opposed to development in the community.

“I think that the growth is good for (local businesses). This business is wonderful. I’m worried about traffic, but I’m OK with the growth and bringing some business out here,” Welch said.

Safeguards have been set in place by the county to prevent the problem further. This includes the Lake Asbury and Branan Field Master Plans, which are the county’s fastest-growing areas, primarily due to the construction of the First Coast Expressway, according to Annaleesa Winter, County Commission Public Information Officer. The plans have specific guidelines that control the types and quality of development in these two areas.

Those plans can be found at www.claycountygov.com/government/planning-and-zoning/master-plans.

The BCC approved a 12-month moratorium on any proposed land use amendment that increases allowable residential densities in the Lake Asbury Master Plan Area on Nov. 9, 2021, and was renewed a year later. Commissioners also held a public hearing on an ordinance to address the matter further.

Another environmental issue could be if Lake LARC Development pushes forward with its $7 million Capital Improvement Plan. However, thee are no known plans are currently in place for development on the land.

The development could prove to be harmful to a parcel that has several complexities in a Fall 1982 report from the University of Florida, which among other things, found new homes aren’t suitable for septic tanks.

One major side effect that could potentially damage both the natural environment and quality of life for residents is runoff from stormwater containing the nutrients from landscaping and septic tanks.

Lake LARC flows directly into Lake Asbury, which then flows into Black Creek.

Lake Asbury experienced a large algal bloom in 2021, and it’s possible that future development at Lake LARC would further trigger the foul, green mess issue, especially for a lake that is already being treated as a retention pond for a growing Henley Road area that already has several new homes across the street.

The potential of construction vehicles moving in and out of home sites for several years could overstress Lake Asbury and other dams. The Florida Department of Transportation posted a weight limit sign at a barrier that had already been slapped with a label by the National Inventory of Dams with an Unsatisfactory Construction Rating.